Pack EV calculator
Shining Fates — pack EV
On average, a Shining Fates pack returns €4.84 (typical pack price ~€4.99).
- EV per pack
- €4.84
- Pack price (MSRP)
- €4.99
- Return on MSRP
- 97%
- EV per ETB (10 packs)
- €48.43
Never sold as loose packs at MSRP — packs come inside ETBs, tins and collections; per-pack figure derived from ETB pricing.
Per-rarity breakdown
Per-pack probability × average price (Cardmarket EUR) = EV share. Rows sum exactly to the headline.
| Rarity | Per pack | Cards | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rare Shiny Shiny Vault (baby shiny) | ≈ 1 in 3 packs | 104 | €7.54 | €2.26 47% |
| Rare Ultra * | ≈ 1 in 25 packs | 9 | €10.46 | €0.42 9% |
| Amazing Rare | ≈ 1 in 16 packs | 3 | €6.27 | €0.39 8% |
| Rare Holo VMAX Shiny Vault (V/VMAX full art) | ≈ 1 in 31 packs | 7 | €12.08 | €0.39 8% |
| Rare Secret Shiny Vault (V/VMAX full art) | ≈ 1 in 108 packs | 2 | €27.25 | €0.25 5% |
| Common | ×5.3 | 18 | €0.05 | €0.24 5% |
| Rare Holo V Shiny Vault (V/VMAX full art) | ≈ 1 in 24 packs | 9 | €5.20 | €0.22 4% |
| Rare Holo | ≈ 1 in 1 packs | 7 | €0.27 | €0.21 4% |
| Rare Holo V * | ≈ 1 in 7 packs | 8 | €1.30 | €0.19 4% |
| Uncommon | ×3.2 | 13 | €0.04 | €0.13 3% |
| Rare Holo VMAX * | ≈ 1 in 33 packs | 6 | €2.92 | €0.09 2% |
| Rare Rainbow * | ≈ 1 in 100 packs | 1 | €3.73 | €0.04 1% |
| Rare | ≈ 1 in 9 packs | 8 | €0.13 | €0.01 0% |
| Total per pack | €4.84 |
Top hits of the set
Methodology and sources
Formula: EV_pack = Σ (per-pack probability of each rarity × average EUR price of that rarity's cards in the set). The breakdown above lists exactly those terms.
Prices: latest Cardmarket EUR quote per card (195 of 195 cards priced). Within each rarity we use the plain mean of every card — chase cards included. A price is only dropped when it looks like a data error: more than 10× the rarity's median AND more than 3× the next-highest price. Bulk cards are NOT excluded — they are part of the real expectation.
Pull rates: community estimates (documented mass pack openings), never official — The Pokémon Company does not publish pull rates. Within a tier (e.g. Galarian Gallery) we assume uniform probability per card. Reverse holos are valued at the regular card's price. Rows marked * use the era baseline rate because nobody has measured that set.
EV is a long-run average: any single pack will usually return much less (the norm) or occasionally much more (the hit). This is not investment advice.
Community estimates, not official. The Shiny Vault subset lives in the separate 'swsh45sv' card list and replaces the reverse-holo slot; probability inside each vault tier is approximated as uniform per card (the shiny Charizard VMAX is empirically rarer than uniform — the vault-tier average therefore slightly overweights it). Rare-slot rates for this set were never published at sample size; values marked 'estimated' extrapolate the SWSH-era baseline to a holo-or-better guaranteed slot. Reverse-holo cards are valued at the regular card's price.
Pull-rate sources
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
- Is it worth opening Shining Fates packs?
- On average a pack returns €4.84, 97% of its MSRP (€4.99). As with almost every set, opening packs loses value versus buying singles — you pay for the thrill of the rip.
- How is the expected value (EV) of a pack calculated?
- We multiply each rarity's per-pack probability by the average EUR price (Cardmarket) of that rarity's cards in the set, then sum: EV = Σ P(rarity) × avg price(rarity). A price is only excluded when it looks like a data error (over 10× the rarity's median and 3× the next-highest price); legitimate chase cards count.
- Are these pull rates official?
- No. The Pokémon Company never publishes pull rates. We use community estimates from documented mass openings (TCGplayer Authentication Center, pull-rate aggregators) and cite every source with its date.
- What is a Shining Fates box worth on average?
- With 10 packs, the expected contents are worth €48.43. Compare against the real sealed price before ripping.
Data from pokemontcg.io · Prices from Cardmarket.