Pack EV calculator
Crown Zenith — pack EV
On average, a Crown Zenith pack returns €10.76 (typical pack price ~€4.99).
- EV per pack
- €10.76
- Pack price (MSRP)
- €4.99
- Return on MSRP
- 216%
- EV per ETB (10 packs)
- €107.58
Never sold as loose packs at MSRP — packs come inside ETBs, tins and collections; per-pack figure derived from ETB pricing.
Per-rarity breakdown
Per-pack probability × average price (Cardmarket EUR) = EV share. Rows sum exactly to the headline.
| Rarity | Per pack | Cards | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rare Holo VSTAR Galarian Gallery (V/VSTAR/VMAX/full art) | ≈ 1 in 30 packs | 10 | €77.11 | €2.53 24% |
| Trainer Gallery Rare Holo Galarian Gallery (art rare) | ≈ 1 in 5 packs | 34 | €11.95 | €2.27 21% |
| Rare Secret Galarian Gallery (gold) | ≈ 1 in 167 packs | 4 | €267.78 | €1.61 15% |
| Rare Secret | ≈ 1 in 67 packs | 1 | €67.03 | €1.01 9% |
| Rare Holo V Galarian Gallery (V/VSTAR/VMAX/full art) | ≈ 1 in 34 packs | 9 | €33.68 | €0.99 9% |
| Rare Holo | ≈ 1 in 1 packs | 20 | €0.85 | €0.67 6% |
| Rare Holo VMAX Galarian Gallery (V/VSTAR/VMAX/full art) | ≈ 1 in 102 packs | 3 | €35.60 | €0.35 3% |
| Rare Ultra Galarian Gallery (V/VSTAR/VMAX/full art) | ≈ 1 in 30 packs | 10 | €8.73 | €0.29 3% |
| Rare Holo V | ≈ 1 in 10 packs | 17 | €2.04 | €0.21 2% |
| Rare Ultra | ≈ 1 in 29 packs | 13 | €5.43 | €0.19 2% |
| Common | ×5.3 | 42 | €0.03 | €0.18 2% |
| Rare Holo VMAX | ≈ 1 in 47 packs | 5 | €7.49 | €0.16 1% |
| Uncommon | ×3.2 | 29 | €0.05 | €0.15 1% |
| Rare Holo VSTAR | ≈ 1 in 29 packs | 8 | €3.16 | €0.11 1% |
| Rare | ≈ 1 in 6 packs | 22 | €0.13 | €0.02 0% |
| Radiant Rare | ≈ 1 in 33 packs | 3 | €0.59 | €0.02 0% |
| Total per pack | €10.76 |
Top hits of the set
Methodology and sources
Formula: EV_pack = Σ (per-pack probability of each rarity × average EUR price of that rarity's cards in the set). The breakdown above lists exactly those terms.
Prices: latest Cardmarket EUR quote per card (230 of 230 cards priced). Within each rarity we use the plain mean of every card — chase cards included. A price is only dropped when it looks like a data error: more than 10× the rarity's median AND more than 3× the next-highest price. Bulk cards are NOT excluded — they are part of the real expectation.
Pull rates: community estimates (documented mass pack openings), never official — The Pokémon Company does not publish pull rates. Within a tier (e.g. Galarian Gallery) we assume uniform probability per card. Reverse holos are valued at the regular card's price. Rows marked * use the era baseline rate because nobody has measured that set.
EV is a long-run average: any single pack will usually return much less (the norm) or occasionally much more (the hit). This is not investment advice.
Community estimates, not official. Galarian Gallery cards live in the separate 'swsh12pt5gg' card list and replace the reverse-holo slot (any GG card ≈ 1 in 3.3 packs). Probability inside each GG tier is approximated as uniform per card. A 3,500-pack sample put GG gold at 1/120 packs vs 1/167 here — we keep the larger per-tier sample. The rare slot is holo-or-better; non-holo Rares only appear via the reverse pool. Reverse-holo cards are valued at the regular card's price.
Pull-rate sources
- Card Shop Live — Crown Zenith hit rates (1,000 packs: GG yellow 19%, GG silver 10.5%, GG gold 0.6%, V 10.5%, VSTAR/VMAX 5.56%, UR trainer 3.5%, secret 1.5%, radiant 3%) — retrieved July 11, 2026
- TCGplayer Infinite — Crown Zenith pull rates — retrieved July 11, 2026
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
- Is it worth opening Crown Zenith packs?
- On average a pack returns €10.76, 216% of its MSRP (€4.99). An EV above pack price is rare and tends to correct over time — check the price date.
- How is the expected value (EV) of a pack calculated?
- We multiply each rarity's per-pack probability by the average EUR price (Cardmarket) of that rarity's cards in the set, then sum: EV = Σ P(rarity) × avg price(rarity). A price is only excluded when it looks like a data error (over 10× the rarity's median and 3× the next-highest price); legitimate chase cards count.
- Are these pull rates official?
- No. The Pokémon Company never publishes pull rates. We use community estimates from documented mass openings (TCGplayer Authentication Center, pull-rate aggregators) and cite every source with its date.
- What is a Crown Zenith box worth on average?
- With 10 packs, the expected contents are worth €107.58. Compare against the real sealed price before ripping.
Data from pokemontcg.io · Prices from Cardmarket.