Is it worth opening Lost Origin packs?

On average a pack returns €2.64, 62% of its MSRP (€4.29). As with almost every set, opening packs loses value versus buying singles — you pay for the thrill of the rip.

How is the expected value (EV) of a pack calculated?

We multiply each rarity's per-pack probability by the average EUR price (Cardmarket) of that rarity's cards in the set, then sum: EV = Σ P(rarity) × avg price(rarity). A price is only excluded when it looks like a data error (over 10× the rarity's median and 3× the next-highest price); legitimate chase cards count.

Are these pull rates official?

No. The Pokémon Company never publishes pull rates. We use community estimates from documented mass openings (TCGplayer Authentication Center, pull-rate aggregators) and cite every source with its date.

What is a Lost Origin box worth on average?

With 36 packs, the expected contents are worth €95.07. Compare against the real sealed price before ripping.

Pack EV calculator

Lost Origin — pack EV

On average, a Lost Origin pack returns €2.64 (typical pack price ~€4.29).

EV per pack: €2.64
Pack price (MSRP): €4.29
Return on MSRP: 62%
EV per box (36 packs): €95.07

Per-rarity breakdown

Per-pack probability × average price (Cardmarket EUR) = EV share. Rows sum exactly to the headline.

Rarity	Per pack	Cards
Rare Ultra	≈ 1 in 20 packs	25	€11.67	€0.58 22%
Trainer Gallery Rare Holo Trainer Gallery	≈ 1 in 22 packs	11	€12.25	€0.56 21%
Rare Holo V Trainer Gallery	≈ 1 in 34 packs	7	€7.35	€0.21 8%
Common	×5.3	49	€0.03	€0.18 7%
Rare Holo	≈ 1 in 4 packs	22	€0.69	€0.18 7%
Rare Secret Trainer Gallery	≈ 1 in 120 packs	2	€17.55	€0.15 6%
Rare Holo VMAX Trainer Gallery	≈ 1 in 60 packs	4	€8.55	€0.14 5%
Uncommon	×3.3	50	€0.04	€0.13 5%
Rare Holo V	≈ 1 in 7 packs	12	€0.73	€0.11 4%
Rare Ultra Trainer Gallery	≈ 1 in 40 packs	6	€3.90	€0.10 4%
Rare Secret	≈ 1 in 67 packs	6	€5.91	€0.09 3%
Rare Rainbow	≈ 1 in 78 packs	15	€5.08	€0.07 2%
Rare	≈ 1 in 2 packs	28	€0.10	€0.06 2%
Rare Holo VMAX	≈ 1 in 53 packs	1	€1.70	€0.03 1%
Rare Holo VSTAR	≈ 1 in 53 packs	6	€1.06	€0.02 1%
Radiant Rare	≈ 1 in 33 packs	3	€0.63	€0.02 1%
Total per pack				€2.64

Top hits of the set

Methodology and sources

Formula: EV_pack = Σ (per-pack probability of each rarity × average EUR price of that rarity's cards in the set). The breakdown above lists exactly those terms.

Prices: latest Cardmarket EUR quote per card (247 of 247 cards priced). Within each rarity we use the plain mean of every card — chase cards included. A price is only dropped when it looks like a data error: more than 10× the rarity's median AND more than 3× the next-highest price. Bulk cards are NOT excluded — they are part of the real expectation.

Pull rates: community estimates (documented mass pack openings), never official — The Pokémon Company does not publish pull rates. Within a tier (e.g. Galarian Gallery) we assume uniform probability per card. Reverse holos are valued at the regular card's price. Rows marked * use the era baseline rate because nobody has measured that set.

EV is a long-run average: any single pack will usually return much less (the norm) or occasionally much more (the hit). This is not investment advice.

Community estimates, not official. Baseline measured on Brilliant Stars (1,004 packs); other SWSH sets deviate — e.g. Evolving Skies alt-art VMAX ≈ 1/250-330 packs makes its Rare Ultra bucket rarer than this average. Trainer Gallery subsets (swsh9-swsh12) live in the '{setCode}tg' card list and replace the reverse-holo slot; probability inside the TG pool is approximated as uniform per card (count-weighted). Radiant Rare applies from Brilliant Stars (swsh9) onward; Amazing Rare only exists in Vivid Voltage (swsh4) — outcomes are dropped automatically for sets without those rarities. Reverse-holo cards are valued at the regular card's price.

Pull-rate sources

DigitalTQ — Brilliant Stars pull rates (1,004 packs opened) — retrieved July 11, 2026
Collector Station — SWSH-era aggregated hit rates (Trainer Gallery ≈ 1 in 8 packs, Lost Origin sample) — retrieved July 11, 2026
Bleeding Cool — Brilliant Stars box expectations (6-10 Ultra Rares, 3-6 Trainer Gallery per 36-pack box) — retrieved July 11, 2026

Is it worth opening Lost Origin packs?: On average a pack returns €2.64, 62% of its MSRP (€4.29). As with almost every set, opening packs loses value versus buying singles — you pay for the thrill of the rip.
How is the expected value (EV) of a pack calculated?: We multiply each rarity's per-pack probability by the average EUR price (Cardmarket) of that rarity's cards in the set, then sum: EV = Σ P(rarity) × avg price(rarity). A price is only excluded when it looks like a data error (over 10× the rarity's median and 3× the next-highest price); legitimate chase cards count.
Are these pull rates official?: No. The Pokémon Company never publishes pull rates. We use community estimates from documented mass openings (TCGplayer Authentication Center, pull-rate aggregators) and cite every source with its date.
What is a Lost Origin box worth on average?: With 36 packs, the expected contents are worth €95.07. Compare against the real sealed price before ripping.

Data from pokemontcg.io · Prices from Cardmarket.