Pack EV calculator
Sword & Shield — pack EV
On average, a Sword & Shield pack returns €4.67 (typical pack price ~€4.29).
- EV per pack
- €4.67
- Pack price (MSRP)
- €4.29
- Return on MSRP
- 109%
- EV per box (36 packs)
- €168.19
Per-rarity breakdown
Per-pack probability × average price (Cardmarket EUR) = EV share. Rows sum exactly to the headline.
| Rarity | Per pack | Cards | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rare Holo | ≈ 1 in 4 packs | 17 | €3.32 | €0.88 19% |
| Rare Ultra | ≈ 1 in 20 packs | 16 | €13.44 | €0.67 14% |
| Rare Secret | ≈ 1 in 67 packs | 6 | €36.47 | €0.54 12% |
| Rare | ≈ 1 in 1 packs | 32 | €0.70 | €0.49 11% |
| Common | ×5.4 | 60 | €0.09 | €0.47 10% |
| Rare Holo V | ≈ 1 in 7 packs | 17 | €3.17 | €0.47 10% |
| Uncommon | ×3.4 | 56 | €0.12 | €0.42 9% |
| Rare Holo VMAX | ≈ 1 in 53 packs | 4 | €20.85 | €0.39 8% |
| Rare Rainbow | ≈ 1 in 78 packs | 8 | €25.29 | €0.33 7% |
| Total per pack | €4.67 |
Top hits of the set
Methodology and sources
Formula: EV_pack = Σ (per-pack probability of each rarity × average EUR price of that rarity's cards in the set). The breakdown above lists exactly those terms.
Prices: latest Cardmarket EUR quote per card (216 of 216 cards priced). Within each rarity we use the plain mean of every card — chase cards included. A price is only dropped when it looks like a data error: more than 10× the rarity's median AND more than 3× the next-highest price. Bulk cards are NOT excluded — they are part of the real expectation.
Pull rates: community estimates (documented mass pack openings), never official — The Pokémon Company does not publish pull rates. Within a tier (e.g. Galarian Gallery) we assume uniform probability per card. Reverse holos are valued at the regular card's price. Rows marked * use the era baseline rate because nobody has measured that set.
EV is a long-run average: any single pack will usually return much less (the norm) or occasionally much more (the hit). This is not investment advice.
Community estimates, not official. Baseline measured on Brilliant Stars (1,004 packs); other SWSH sets deviate — e.g. Evolving Skies alt-art VMAX ≈ 1/250-330 packs makes its Rare Ultra bucket rarer than this average. Trainer Gallery subsets (swsh9-swsh12) live in the '{setCode}tg' card list and replace the reverse-holo slot; probability inside the TG pool is approximated as uniform per card (count-weighted). Radiant Rare applies from Brilliant Stars (swsh9) onward; Amazing Rare only exists in Vivid Voltage (swsh4) — outcomes are dropped automatically for sets without those rarities. Reverse-holo cards are valued at the regular card's price.
Pull-rate sources
- DigitalTQ — Brilliant Stars pull rates (1,004 packs opened) — retrieved July 11, 2026
- Collector Station — SWSH-era aggregated hit rates (Trainer Gallery ≈ 1 in 8 packs, Lost Origin sample) — retrieved July 11, 2026
- Bleeding Cool — Brilliant Stars box expectations (6-10 Ultra Rares, 3-6 Trainer Gallery per 36-pack box) — retrieved July 11, 2026
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
- Is it worth opening Sword & Shield packs?
- On average a pack returns €4.67, 109% of its MSRP (€4.29). An EV above pack price is rare and tends to correct over time — check the price date.
- How is the expected value (EV) of a pack calculated?
- We multiply each rarity's per-pack probability by the average EUR price (Cardmarket) of that rarity's cards in the set, then sum: EV = Σ P(rarity) × avg price(rarity). A price is only excluded when it looks like a data error (over 10× the rarity's median and 3× the next-highest price); legitimate chase cards count.
- Are these pull rates official?
- No. The Pokémon Company never publishes pull rates. We use community estimates from documented mass openings (TCGplayer Authentication Center, pull-rate aggregators) and cite every source with its date.
- What is a Sword & Shield box worth on average?
- With 36 packs, the expected contents are worth €168.19. Compare against the real sealed price before ripping.
Data from pokemontcg.io · Prices from Cardmarket.