Pack EV calculator
Prismatic Evolutions — pack EV
On average, a Prismatic Evolutions pack returns €2.94 (typical pack price ~€4.49).
- EV per pack
- €2.94
- Pack price (MSRP)
- €4.49
- Return on MSRP
- 66%
- EV per ETB (9 packs)
- €26.50
Only sold inside ETBs/collections; real per-pack street price is far above MSRP for this set.
Per-rarity breakdown
Per-pack probability × average price (Cardmarket EUR) = EV share. Rows sum exactly to the headline.
| Rarity | Per pack | Cards | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare | ≈ 1 in 45 packs | 32 | €79.29 | €1.76 60% |
| Double Rare * | ≈ 1 in 7 packs | 25 | €2.33 | €0.33 11% |
| Rare | ×1.2 | 21 | €0.27 | €0.32 11% |
| Common | ×4.9 | 46 | €0.04 | €0.19 6% |
| Uncommon | ×3.6 | 33 | €0.05 | €0.17 6% |
| Hyper Rare | ≈ 1 in 179 packs | 5 | €15.70 | €0.09 3% |
| Ultra Rare * | ≈ 1 in 15 packs | 12 | €0.85 | €0.06 2% |
| ACE SPEC Rare | ≈ 1 in 21 packs | 6 | €0.60 | €0.03 1% |
| Total per pack | €2.94 |
Top hits of the set
Methodology and sources
Formula: EV_pack = Σ (per-pack probability of each rarity × average EUR price of that rarity's cards in the set). The breakdown above lists exactly those terms.
Prices: latest Cardmarket EUR quote per card (180 of 180 cards priced). Within each rarity we use the plain mean of every card — chase cards included. A price is only dropped when it looks like a data error: more than 10× the rarity's median AND more than 3× the next-highest price. Bulk cards are NOT excluded — they are part of the real expectation.
Pull rates: community estimates (documented mass pack openings), never official — The Pokémon Company does not publish pull rates. Within a tier (e.g. Galarian Gallery) we assume uniform probability per card. Reverse holos are valued at the regular card's price. Rows marked * use the era baseline rate because nobody has measured that set.
EV is a long-run average: any single pack will usually return much less (the norm) or occasionally much more (the hit). This is not investment advice.
Community estimates, not official, and from a smaller 1,200-pack sample. Double Rare / Ultra Rare rates were not published for this set; we use the SV-era baseline and flag them as estimated. Master Ball reverse-holo variants (≈1/20 packs) are NOT modelled: they are print variants of regular cards and our price data does not track them separately — this makes the real EV somewhat HIGHER than shown. Reverse-holo cards are valued at the regular card's price.
Pull-rate sources
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
- Is it worth opening Prismatic Evolutions packs?
- On average a pack returns €2.94, 66% of its MSRP (€4.49). As with almost every set, opening packs loses value versus buying singles — you pay for the thrill of the rip.
- How is the expected value (EV) of a pack calculated?
- We multiply each rarity's per-pack probability by the average EUR price (Cardmarket) of that rarity's cards in the set, then sum: EV = Σ P(rarity) × avg price(rarity). A price is only excluded when it looks like a data error (over 10× the rarity's median and 3× the next-highest price); legitimate chase cards count.
- Are these pull rates official?
- No. The Pokémon Company never publishes pull rates. We use community estimates from documented mass openings (TCGplayer Authentication Center, pull-rate aggregators) and cite every source with its date.
- What is a Prismatic Evolutions box worth on average?
- With 9 packs, the expected contents are worth €26.50. Compare against the real sealed price before ripping.
Data from pokemontcg.io · Prices from Cardmarket.