Pack EV calculator
Surging Sparks — pack EV
On average, a Surging Sparks pack returns €5.07 (typical pack price ~€4.49).
- EV per pack
- €5.07
- Pack price (MSRP)
- €4.49
- Return on MSRP
- 113%
- EV per box (36 packs)
- €182.51
Per-rarity breakdown
Per-pack probability × average price (Cardmarket EUR) = EV share. Rows sum exactly to the headline.
| Rarity | Per pack | Cards | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare | ≈ 1 in 32 packs | 11 | €56.15 | €1.76 35% |
| Common | ×5 | 88 | €0.34 | €1.71 34% |
| Illustration Rare | ≈ 1 in 13 packs | 23 | €6.73 | €0.52 10% |
| Hyper Rare | ≈ 1 in 54 packs | 6 | €16.23 | €0.30 6% |
| Ultra Rare | ≈ 1 in 15 packs | 21 | €3.18 | €0.21 4% |
| Rare | ≈ 1 in 1 packs | 16 | €0.19 | €0.17 3% |
| Double Rare | ≈ 1 in 7 packs | 18 | €1.19 | €0.17 3% |
| Uncommon | ×3.7 | 61 | €0.04 | €0.16 3% |
| ACE SPEC Rare | ≈ 1 in 21 packs | 8 | €1.38 | €0.07 1% |
| Total per pack | €5.07 |
Top hits of the set
Methodology and sources
Formula: EV_pack = Σ (per-pack probability of each rarity × average EUR price of that rarity's cards in the set). The breakdown above lists exactly those terms.
Prices: latest Cardmarket EUR quote per card (252 of 252 cards priced). Within each rarity we use the plain mean of every card — chase cards included. A price is only dropped when it looks like a data error: more than 10× the rarity's median AND more than 3× the next-highest price. Bulk cards are NOT excluded — they are part of the real expectation.
Pull rates: community estimates (documented mass pack openings), never official — The Pokémon Company does not publish pull rates. Within a tier (e.g. Galarian Gallery) we assume uniform probability per card. Reverse holos are valued at the regular card's price. Rows marked * use the era baseline rate because nobody has measured that set.
EV is a long-run average: any single pack will usually return much less (the norm) or occasionally much more (the hit). This is not investment advice.
Community estimates, not official — The Pokémon Company never publishes pull rates. Baseline measured on SV base (8,000+ packs); per-set drift exists (2024 sets Twilight Masquerade→Surging Sparks had Special Illustration Rare closer to 1 in 85-90 packs). ACE SPEC slot applies only from Temporal Forces (sv5) onward; the resolver drops it automatically for sets without ACE SPEC cards. Reverse-holo cards are valued at the regular card's price (reverse variants are not priced separately in our data).
Pull-rate sources
- PullRates — Scarlet & Violet pull rates (TCGplayer Authentication Center, 8,000+ packs) — retrieved July 11, 2026
- PokéBeach — Prismatic Evolutions pull rates (context: SIR rate drifted between 1/32 and ~1/90 across 2024 SV sets) — retrieved July 11, 2026
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
- Is it worth opening Surging Sparks packs?
- On average a pack returns €5.07, 113% of its MSRP (€4.49). An EV above pack price is rare and tends to correct over time — check the price date.
- How is the expected value (EV) of a pack calculated?
- We multiply each rarity's per-pack probability by the average EUR price (Cardmarket) of that rarity's cards in the set, then sum: EV = Σ P(rarity) × avg price(rarity). A price is only excluded when it looks like a data error (over 10× the rarity's median and 3× the next-highest price); legitimate chase cards count.
- Are these pull rates official?
- No. The Pokémon Company never publishes pull rates. We use community estimates from documented mass openings (TCGplayer Authentication Center, pull-rate aggregators) and cite every source with its date.
- What is a Surging Sparks box worth on average?
- With 36 packs, the expected contents are worth €182.51. Compare against the real sealed price before ripping.
Data from pokemontcg.io · Prices from Cardmarket.