Pack EV calculator
Paldean Fates — pack EV
On average, a Paldean Fates pack returns €4.13 (typical pack price ~€4.49).
- EV per pack
- €4.13
- Pack price (MSRP)
- €4.49
- Return on MSRP
- 92%
- EV per ETB (9 packs)
- €37.19
Only sold inside bundles/ETBs/tins; real per-pack street price is usually above MSRP.
Per-rarity breakdown
Per-pack probability × average price (Cardmarket EUR) = EV share. Rows sum exactly to the headline.
| Rarity | Per pack | Cards | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare | ≈ 1 in 67 packs | 8 | €117.47 | €1.76 43% |
| Shiny Rare | ≈ 1 in 4 packs | 120 | €5.12 | €1.28 31% |
| Common | ×4.8 | 40 | €0.04 | €0.20 5% |
| Uncommon | ×3.5 | 25 | €0.05 | €0.17 4% |
| Rare | ×1.1 | 16 | €0.15 | €0.16 4% |
| Shiny Ultra Rare | ≈ 1 in 13 packs | 12 | €1.88 | €0.14 3% |
| Double Rare * | ≈ 1 in 7 packs | 10 | €0.89 | €0.13 3% |
| Illustration Rare | ≈ 1 in 12 packs | 3 | €1.47 | €0.12 3% |
| Hyper Rare | ≈ 1 in 67 packs | 6 | €8.05 | €0.12 3% |
| Ultra Rare | ≈ 1 in 15 packs | 5 | €0.71 | €0.05 1% |
| Total per pack | €4.13 |
Top hits of the set
Methodology and sources
Formula: EV_pack = Σ (per-pack probability of each rarity × average EUR price of that rarity's cards in the set). The breakdown above lists exactly those terms.
Prices: latest Cardmarket EUR quote per card (245 of 245 cards priced). Within each rarity we use the plain mean of every card — chase cards included. A price is only dropped when it looks like a data error: more than 10× the rarity's median AND more than 3× the next-highest price. Bulk cards are NOT excluded — they are part of the real expectation.
Pull rates: community estimates (documented mass pack openings), never official — The Pokémon Company does not publish pull rates. Within a tier (e.g. Galarian Gallery) we assume uniform probability per card. Reverse holos are valued at the regular card's price. Rows marked * use the era baseline rate because nobody has measured that set.
EV is a long-run average: any single pack will usually return much less (the norm) or occasionally much more (the hit). This is not investment advice.
Community estimates, not official. TCGplayer's 1,500-pack sample: any Shiny Pokémon ≈ 1 in 3 packs in the first reverse-holo slot (Shiny Rare ≈ 25%, Shiny Ultra Rare ≈ 7-8%), Illustration Rare ≈ 8-9%, Ultra Rare ≈ 6-7%, SIR and Hyper Rare ≈ 1-2% each. The Double Rare rate was not published for this set; we use the SV-era baseline (1/7) and flag it as estimated. Reverse-holo cards are valued at the regular card's price.
Pull-rate sources
- TCGplayer Infinite — Paldean Fates pull rates (Authentication Center, 1,500+ packs) — retrieved July 11, 2026
- PokemonCoders — Paldean Fates specific-card odds (1/155 for a given Shiny Rare) — retrieved July 11, 2026
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
- Is it worth opening Paldean Fates packs?
- On average a pack returns €4.13, 92% of its MSRP (€4.49). As with almost every set, opening packs loses value versus buying singles — you pay for the thrill of the rip.
- How is the expected value (EV) of a pack calculated?
- We multiply each rarity's per-pack probability by the average EUR price (Cardmarket) of that rarity's cards in the set, then sum: EV = Σ P(rarity) × avg price(rarity). A price is only excluded when it looks like a data error (over 10× the rarity's median and 3× the next-highest price); legitimate chase cards count.
- Are these pull rates official?
- No. The Pokémon Company never publishes pull rates. We use community estimates from documented mass openings (TCGplayer Authentication Center, pull-rate aggregators) and cite every source with its date.
- What is a Paldean Fates box worth on average?
- With 9 packs, the expected contents are worth €37.19. Compare against the real sealed price before ripping.
Data from pokemontcg.io · Prices from Cardmarket.