Pack EV calculator
151 — pack EV
On average, a 151 pack returns €12.31 (typical pack price ~€4.49).
- EV per pack
- €12.31
- Pack price (MSRP)
- €4.49
- Return on MSRP
- 274%
- EV per ETB (9 packs)
- €110.82
Only sold inside bundles/ETBs; real per-pack street price is usually well above MSRP.
Per-rarity breakdown
Per-pack probability × average price (Cardmarket EUR) = EV share. Rows sum exactly to the headline.
| Rarity | Per pack | Cards | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare | ≈ 1 in 12 packs | 16 | €48.83 | €4.07 33% |
| Special Illustration Rare | ≈ 1 in 32 packs | 7 | €110.52 | €3.46 28% |
| Rare | ×1.1 | 25 | €2.25 | €2.42 20% |
| Ultra Rare | ≈ 1 in 16 packs | 16 | €14.45 | €0.90 7% |
| Double Rare | ≈ 1 in 8 packs | 12 | €3.28 | €0.41 3% |
| Common | ×4.8 | 66 | €0.08 | €0.38 3% |
| Uncommon | ×3.8 | 62 | €0.09 | €0.36 3% |
| Hyper Rare | ≈ 1 in 51 packs | 3 | €15.88 | €0.31 3% |
| Total per pack | €12.31 |
Top hits of the set
Methodology and sources
Formula: EV_pack = Σ (per-pack probability of each rarity × average EUR price of that rarity's cards in the set). The breakdown above lists exactly those terms.
Prices: latest Cardmarket EUR quote per card (207 of 207 cards priced). Within each rarity we use the plain mean of every card — chase cards included. A price is only dropped when it looks like a data error: more than 10× the rarity's median AND more than 3× the next-highest price. Bulk cards are NOT excluded — they are part of the real expectation.
Pull rates: community estimates (documented mass pack openings), never official — The Pokémon Company does not publish pull rates. Within a tier (e.g. Galarian Gallery) we assume uniform probability per card. Reverse holos are valued at the regular card's price. Rows marked * use the era baseline rate because nobody has measured that set.
EV is a long-run average: any single pack will usually return much less (the norm) or occasionally much more (the hit). This is not investment advice.
Community estimates, not official. A foil basic energy replaces a filler card in roughly 1 in 4 packs; energies (sve) are not part of this set's card list and are ignored here — this biases the EV down by a couple of cents at most. Reverse-holo cards are valued at the regular card's price.
Pull-rate sources
- Packz — 151 pack odds guide (Double Rare 1/8, Ultra Rare 1/16, IR 1/12, SIR 1/32, Hyper 1/51) — retrieved July 11, 2026
- PokéPatch — Scarlet & Violet 151 pull rates (1,000+ packs; SIR ≈ 3.11%) — retrieved July 11, 2026
- Joseph Writer Anderson — 151 pull rates (TCGplayer Authentication Center, 1,500+ packs) — retrieved July 11, 2026
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
- Is it worth opening 151 packs?
- On average a pack returns €12.31, 274% of its MSRP (€4.49). An EV above pack price is rare and tends to correct over time — check the price date.
- How is the expected value (EV) of a pack calculated?
- We multiply each rarity's per-pack probability by the average EUR price (Cardmarket) of that rarity's cards in the set, then sum: EV = Σ P(rarity) × avg price(rarity). A price is only excluded when it looks like a data error (over 10× the rarity's median and 3× the next-highest price); legitimate chase cards count.
- Are these pull rates official?
- No. The Pokémon Company never publishes pull rates. We use community estimates from documented mass openings (TCGplayer Authentication Center, pull-rate aggregators) and cite every source with its date.
- What is a 151 box worth on average?
- With 9 packs, the expected contents are worth €110.82. Compare against the real sealed price before ripping.
Data from pokemontcg.io · Prices from Cardmarket.